If you’re a commercial property investor looking toward 2010, where are the most promising real estate markets in the U.S.?

The Urban Land Institute teamed with consulting firm Pricewaterhouse Coopers and asked more than 900 investors, developers and lenders that question recently, and came up with some intriguing answers.

The top market for heads-up investors among literally hundreds around the country turns out to be Washington D.C.

The nation’s capital, where you send your tax money and where your federal government continues to grow, turns out to be the only truly “recession proof” market in the U.S., according to the real estate experts polled in the study.

Why? Because Washington thrives when the economy falls apart, thrives when the country is at war, and does really well when the political party in power believes in big government, more agencies and more federal spending.

And that’s precisely where we are right now.

“While hard pressed lenders pull back in most cities,” according to the Urban Land Institute’s summary of the study, in Washington “major insurers and banks have taken a long term view and are actively providing financing for new (commercial real estate) deals. ”

No shortage of equity or debt for the right project — if it’s in D.C.

And it’s not just the city itself that’s prospering. The Virginia and Maryland suburbs are adding high tech, defense and scientific jobs by the thousands.

According to the study, “Bethesda (Maryland), home to the National Institutes of Health, should benefit from increased biomedical (federal) spending,” and the close-in Virginia suburbs are expected to grow defense-related jobs and new construction as well.

Ranking number two after Washington for commercial property investment in 2010 is San Francisco, with especially good prospects for apartments, warehouses, offices and hotels. Metropolitan San Francisco not only is a tourist and convention magnet, but combines strong center-city employment with the high-tech industry in suburban Silicon Valley.

The third rated top investment prospect in the survey might be a surprise to some: Austin, Texas, with lots of technology businesses growing and needing more space. The survey ranked it near the top because of the city’s pro-business political climate and low taxes, both of which should, it said, “contribute to future growth and continuing corporate relocations. Austin fits the “brainpower” model that attracts investment even when the national economy is soft.

Rounding out the top ten hot spots for commercial and income-property investors for the coming year, by rank: Boston, New York, Houston, Seattle, Raleigh/Durham North Carolina, Denver and San Jose, California.

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This article, “Flipping Properties Require Margin and Fixed Expenses,” by M. Anthony Carr from Realty Times gives first time investors a good perspective on flipping homes. With so many foreclosures out in a buyers’ market, first time investor-flippers need to be aware of scenarios that might give them second thoughts:

Ah, yes. The flipping of houses. What better way can a common man build his millions? Well, not many. It really can be a quick way to create wealth as long as the flipper doesn’t let the flippee house take over his life and bank account.

The number one equation to take into account on this project is the margin. What is your cost to get into the house and the average sales price of a house in the selected neighborhood on a remodeled home? Obviously, you want this margin to be as high as possible. The challenge in today’s market, when looking at it nationally, is that many of the diamonds in the rough are located in areas where prices are still declining, so the investor must be sure to purchase the house, gut out the old, insert the new, and get out of the house before the declining price catches up with him and his profit.

Successful flipping is all about your margin. I would love to give you a set equation with fixed expenses, but every house is different. One house may need a kitchen, another, the kitchen and two baths. Here’s a pretty cool calculator online that can help determine your cost at www.RemodelingMySpace.com. With the flipping I’ve seen done in our market, it seems to be pretty accurate on its estimation of replacement costs.

Understanding that all homes are different, the sample below works for our hypothetical house only. Not for every potential flipper on the market. So here’s your calculation.

Let’s say the asking price is $199,000 for the house in its current condition. You see that it needs a new kitchen, 2 new baths, a new furnace, carpeting, painting inside and out and finally, some landscaping.

After your bids from your work crew come in, your fix up expenses come up to $47,000. Add the $47,000 to the $199,000 for your net expense: $246,000. Now you have the Realtor of choice calculate the price homes are selling for in the community that are remodeled or in excellent condition (because by the time you get done, yours should be in excellent condition). Let’s say it’s $285,000. Wow, it looks like you just picked up a cool $39,000. Well, not exactly.

First, you have to determine how long it will take to sell the house and calculate your carrying costs (monthly payment, construction loans, etc.) If you’re in the same situation as most foreclosure markets, you need to figure about 4 – 6 months carrying costs of preparation and marketing time. If your costs is about $1200 per month (for the mortgage plus utilities), you’re now out $4800 (and your take has dropped to $34,200).

And don’t forget your 7 percent selling costs for commission and closing expenses, which is roughly $19,950. So now your margin of profit is about $14,000 give or take a $1,000.

As you can see, this is how a lot of people get into trouble thinking that if they pick up a house for $85,000 under market price they’ll be rolling in the dough quickly. Most experienced investors are looking for a margin of 50 percent of the value or $100,000 on a higher priced home.

The challenge of a profit margin of $14,000 is that it can be quickly removed in a declining market or the negotiation process in a buyers market.

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The San Diego housing market is once again hot! Selling quickly and at above listed prices are the bank-owned foreclosure properties, both detached homes and condominiums. Alan Greenspan’s term “irrational exuberance” is once again characteristic of the San Diego home buyer’s behavior. Any property description using “bank-owned,” “lender repossession,” “foreclosure sale,” etc., is drawing a crowd to see the property. If the property is in decent condition, there will be offers and multiple offers, at that.

Sounds like déjà-vu? Not quite. Adding my observation to the above facts, a number of lenders have hit on a marketing ploy to create a buying frenzy which guarantees an almost instant sale. In the majority of cases the offer(s) exceed what may have been realistically expected if the property was marketed the traditional way.

Here are some actual examples of this technique for San Diego home sales.

Example 1: On 4-8-09, a bank owned home in east Carlsbad was listed at $499,900. Based on the location, age and size of the home, I estimated the current value at $575,000 to just over $600,000. Within one day of the listing, the listing agent had multiple offers. According to the agent, the lender required it to be on the market one week before they would look at any offers. The agent speculated that based on the number of inquires, she would have 40 to 50 offers in the one week period. This home sold for $597,000. The sales price was almost 20% over the listed price. Doesn’t a sale of $97,100 over the listed price suggest that it was listed way under the market?

Example 2: A bank-owned Little Italy one bedroom condominium was listed in March for $234,900. The estimated fair current value for this condo was approximately $275,000 to $280,000. The listing agent stated that within 3 hours of the MLS listing being submitted, he had an offer. Again, the lender would not look at any offer until the condo was on the market one week. This San Diego property generated 21 offers within the 1st. week, of these, 11 were at or above the $234,900, listed price. This Little Italy condo sold at $295,600, or $60,700, approximately 26% above the listed price! I was told the accepted price was $15,000 above the next highest offer.

Example 3: A San Carlos planned-unit-development, bank-owned 4 bedroom was listed at $344,900. The estimated fair value for this condo was approximately $410,000 to $425,000. Inside of one week, this San Carlos property had an accepted offer at $410,000. This was approximately 19%, or $65,100, above the listed price! Banks are purposely under listing property with the strategy of creating a buying frenzy to result not only in a very quick sale, but, a sale at or above the fair market value. Is this practice fair or even legal? It is on both counts. If the bank does not list it properly, they could end up with a sale way below the current fair market value.

On the other hand, it isn’t fair to neophyte buyers/agents. Buyers and/or their agent who do not recognize the ploy, may be wasting quite a bit of time writing offers that in some cases, will not even be considered or countered. Also, what about shattered expectations? A number of buyers/agents may honestly believe that their full price offer has a chance of being accepted. In reality, they not only have zero chance of getting their offer accepted, but in the majority of cases, they will not even get a counter-offer.

This is not the time for buyers to be represented by neophyte agents. Bargains are available and buyers can position themselves to be one of the lucky ones by selecting an experienced agent familiar with the areas in which they are interested. A good agent will have reasonable advice about structuring offers and which properties are worth the work and wait. Follow that advice!